Sunday, February 2, 2014

More Winter Weather on The Way?

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 10Z/4AM...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF A KCXO/KDWH/KTME LINE. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT
THAT MUCH. BEHIND THE FRONT KCLL/KUTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX AND OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S BY AFTERNOON WITH SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION. COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY REACH HOUSTON AREA AROUND
16Z OR 10AM AND THEN THE COAST AROUND 18Z OR 12PM. EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DENSE SEA FOG MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO LIKE 60 POPS. LATEST
TRENDS IN HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIP. MAY BE SOME ISO HALF INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WHERE SHOWERS
TRAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS. POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BIG BEND MOVES EAST WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KCRP SHOWS A STOUT CAP WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND 20C.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FORECAST AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE CAP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH 00Z-06Z MON SO EXPECT PRECIP TO END TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT TX
ON TUESDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD REACH S ROCKIES/WEST TX AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH SHOWERS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH NEG TILT DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT BEST PVA AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS SO LIKE 50/60 POPS AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TROUGH AXIS ROTATES BY THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH SFC FEATURES NAMELY WEAK COASTAL LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE KEEPING WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
COASTAL LOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CAPPING. ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR
OUT LATE TUE WITH NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON WED AND TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO COME INTO SOME CONSENSUS FOR THE END OF
WEEK FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO JET AFFECTING THE AREA. MAY BE
ENOUGH WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOR SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP 20/30 POPS FOR THUR BUT LOOKING
LIKE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE S ROCKIES AND TX ON
FRI. ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND AMPLIFIED. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SAT
AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PASSES THE AREA AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DRY OUT. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH TRAILING THE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI MORNING. HAVE SOME AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE BUT VERY WELL COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASED ON TOP-DOWN PRECIP METHODOLOGY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING
FORWARD WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

The weather forecasters at NOAA think there might be some freezing rain, or drizzle this Thursday, or Friday, but they are not sure. NOAA said that they will let us know once we get closer to Thursday and Friday, when they can make a better forecast, but they are leaving the forecast for Thursday and Friday as just rain for now.

4 comments:

  1. Joseph, stay safe and warm. This Winter is definitely one for the books!

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  2. I bet you will get some of that weather they are predicting, Joseph. We had rain and cooler temps today and I'm sure this system is heading your way. Be safe out there!

    betty

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks, it doesn't look like it, but we will probably get some rain and much cooler temps! : )

    ReplyDelete

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