Monday, January 27, 2014

Breakdown of Tuesday's Winter Storm



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

..ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF WACO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND THE TROUGH SHOULD BE APPROACHING CLL BY 11Z.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
FEEL ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. WILL WATCH TRENDS BUT DON`T THINK A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE REQUIRED THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL LAGS A BIT AND THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM LITTLE ROCK TO FT WORTH TO ABILENE. MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL SURGE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
AND MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH FALLING AFTN TEMPS.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OF SE TX TODAY. COULD ALSO GET A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT A THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUES
MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX AND THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX OVER THE NORTH
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MID MORNING. QPF NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...PROBABLY 1-2 INCH TOTALS.
THE PRECIP WILL START LATER OVER THE SOUTH...PROBABLY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND PRECIPITATE THROUGH THE END OF THE AFTN. QPF LOOKS
MORE GENEROUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND UPPER COASTAL ZONES. THINK THIS
IS WHERE MOST OF THE TROUBLE WILL OCCUR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM NOSE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS BELOW
3000 FEET. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MELT ON ITS DESCENT AND THEN
EITHER FALL AS RAIN AND FREEZE ON CONTACT OR REFREEZE AND FALL AS
SLEET. LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS ABOUT 0.40 INCHES AND IF THIS FALLS
AS FREEZING RAIN...SIGNIFICANT ICING OF ROADWAYS AND POWERLINES
WILL DEVELOP. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S DURING THE PRECIP EVENT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
EFFICIENT ICE MAKING. FCST SOUNDINGS TREND COLDER IN THE LATE AFTN
AND SOME SNOW WILL PROBABLY MIX INTO THE MESS BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF SENDS A PIECE
OF ENERGY EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
SO KEPT 20 POPS FOR THE FAR SW ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY. IT`LL BE COLD
ON WED AND MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S
UNDER FULL SUN.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
CAN`T FIND A REAL TRIGGER FOR PRECIP TO FOCUS ON BUT DEEPER MSTR
COUPLED WITH WAA SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS.

NOAA's forecast and discussion of a winter storm that is expected to pass through the Houston area on Tuesday.

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